Consumer Credit: The Next Crisis (Harvard Business Review Article)

The degree to which consumers have come to depend on easy, inexpensive credit is a far greater threat to the economy than most realize. To pay it off, the average U.S. consumer would have to hand over every penny of his take-home pay for 16 months. And in all that time he wouldn't be able to buy anything else--no clothes, food, coffee, nothing. Okay, so no one is going to do that. But what will people do? Individual decisions to cut back on consumption--or perhaps run up the credit cards to the max and then declare bankruptcy--will translate in the aggregate into tremendous volatility and risk for the companies customers buy (or suddenly stop buying) from. In fact, warn investment banker Jarvis and Wharton professor MacMillan, the profits and cash flows of nearly all U.S. companies are built directly or indirectly on consumer spending, and the connection is not always obvious. How many loyal supermarket customers are quietly opting to pay for their food with their credit cards rather than